A practical guide to seasonal forecasts

  • By BRACED
  • 21/06/2019

Credit: Denis Onyodi/URCS-DRK-Climate Centre

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This is a series of short, practical guidance documents with advice on how to interpret and use seasonal forecasts. Seasonal forecasts are a popular forecast product with the added attractiveness of long lead times. However, they are not a panacea, and these guidance documents share the circumstances under which they can be useful for decision-making. This series draws upon lessons from ongoing research on using seasonal forecasts for early action, as well as from the practice of using seasonal forecasts in climate services projects. It is written by people working along different parts of the climate services value chain including - producing seasonal forecasts, interpreting, and disseminating for action – for those who are relatively new to climate services, these include: Meghan Bailey (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre), Joseph Daron (UK Met Of ce), Rebecca Emerton (University of Reading), Mark van den Homberg (510 Global), Sarah Klassen (Start Network), Catalina Jaime (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre), Dave MacLeod (University of Oxford), Roop Singh (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre), and Alison Sneddon (Practical Action).

Within the guide are the following topics:

  • Issue No. 1 – Seasonal Forecasts 101
  • Issue No. 2 – How to approach a meteorological service to access and use seasonal forecasts
  • Issue No. 3 – How to use seasonal forecasts alongside other information to anticipate and manage risks
  • Issue No. 4 – The benefits and limitations of using seasonal forecasts to take action
  • Issue No. 5 – Creating feedback loops with forecasters and users
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